Stony Brook University Faculty of Sciences and Humanities

[Hankyung Essay] Trump, It Might Actually Be a Good Thing

I ran into Professor Mark Ivan from the FIT Fashion Design Department in the elevator. He said he was feeling down about Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election. He expressed concerns that women, LGBTQ people, and minorities in the U.S. might face discrimination under his leadership. On the anniversary of my father's passing, relatives were worried that South Korea might have to contribute ten times more to the cost of the U.S. military presence in Korea. At a university alumni gathering, senior alumni also said they couldn’t understand how someone like Trump could become president.

The uncertainty caused by Trump is worrying the world. But in reality, Trump is, at his core, a businessman. He is not an idealist but a pragmatist. If something benefits the U.S., he will meet and make deals, regardless of previous principles.

So, there's no need to worry too much. We can use our diplomatic power and negotiation skills to give and take. For example, if we are asked to increase our contribution to the cost of U.S. troops stationed in Korea, we could suggest ways in which we, as allies, can contribute more. We might even push for permission to establish our own nuclear fuel reprocessing facility. During Trump's first term, there were many extreme campaign promises, but once he became president, most of them were either not implemented or were carried out in a more moderate direction. For instance, despite his campaign promise, he did not carry out large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants because many difficult industries in the U.S., such as agriculture, rely on undocumented workers.

Trump sees China as a major threat. Tariffs are likely to be focused on Chinese imports. This will give us, as competitors to China in the U.S. market, a relative advantage. Also, our companies that have invested in building semiconductor and battery factories in the U.S. are worried that Trump's administration might eliminate electric vehicle tax credits (subsidies) based on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, since the U.S. is a federal system, state governments cannot be ignored. Moreover, the U.S. will have midterm elections in two years. Considering the economic benefits that state governments and their residents are receiving from factory establishments, it does not seem easy to completely eliminate these subsidies.

A few months ago, a report by the Heritage Foundation stated that to respond to China's growing naval power, the U.S. should work with South Korea to produce more warships. Perhaps that’s why, after Trump was elected, he requested cooperation with South Korea's shipbuilding industry during his first call with our president. As a result, the South Korean shipbuilding and defense industries are expected to boom. Soon, as Trump promised, when the U.S. begins extracting huge amounts of shale gas, international oil prices are likely to drop, which will help South Korea save on fuel costs. The second term of Trump might not necessarily be bad for us. In fact, the Trump era could be an opportunity for us to move toward a wealthier South Korea.

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