Stony Brook University Faculty of Sciences and Humanities

[HanKyung Essay] U.S. Presidential Election 2024, Like American Football 

At a chair’s meeting last month, when the topic of the U.S. presidential election came up, American professors stationed at the New York campus indirectly criticized Republican candidate Donald Trump by saying, "We can't go back to the past." New York is traditionally a blue state that supports the Democratic Party, so more people in New York support Kamala Harris.

The United States is a federal country composed of 50 states. In the U.S. presidential election, the candidate who receives the most votes in each state wins all of that state's electoral votes. As a result, there have been two instances since the 2000s where a candidate who won the popular vote nationwide did not become president due to losing in the Electoral College.

Understanding the U.S. presidential election is as difficult as understanding American football. However, once you understand the complex rules, methods, tactics, and strategies, watching a football game becomes more enjoyable, and the same applies to the U.S. presidential election. In the U.S. election, there are states that you must pay close attention to. These are the battleground or swing states—seven states that are hard to predict in terms of who will win. In particular, winning in the three Rust Belt states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—seems to be crucial for determining the overall outcome of this election.

Polls released by American media often show a difference of more than 5% depending on the polling agency. Therefore, it is advisable to refer to the "RealClearPolitics" data, which aggregates results from major polling organizations. Over the past three months, I have checked the battleground state poll results every week, and Harris has never led Trump by more than 1%. Despite this, most American media outlets have reported that Harris has a higher chance of winning in recent months.

Apart from Fox News, most major U.S. broadcasters and newspapers tend to be progressive and Democratic-leaning, which has resulted in favorable coverage for Harris. However, I have been disappointed to see many Korean broadcasters and media outlets directly echoing these reports. It is worth noting that during October, Trump was ahead by a narrow margin within the margin of error in all battleground states.

Finally, an important aspect to focus on is the "Shy Trump" supporters. Trump is currently facing multiple criminal charges and is perceived to have significant personal flaws, so even among conservative voters, many dislike him. As a result, while they may not openly criticize or support Trump, due to issues like the economy and illegal immigration, there is a hidden group of voters—estimated to be around 2-3%—who will secretly vote for Trump in the election. In the last two presidential elections, Trump's actual vote share was at least 2-3% higher than the polling results predicted. Therefore, if the polls in battleground states are extremely close, it seems more likely that Trump could win.

Who will win this time?